Bayer Raises 2026 Profit Forecast as Drug Sales Accelerate — but Cash and Litigation Risks Persist

November 3, 2026 — Bayer has raised its full-year operating-earnings forecast after stronger pharmaceutical sales lifted third-quarter results. The improvement is material, but the company’s reported net loss and negative cash flow show why a higher earnings target is not the same as a completed turnaround.

What changed in Bayer’s outlook?

The German healthcare and agriculture group now expects currency-adjusted EBITDA before special items of €9.8 billion to €10.3 billion in 2026, compared with its previous €9.6 billion to €10.1 billion range. It also lifted its free-cash-flow forecast by €1 billion, although the new range remains negative at minus €1.5 billion to minus €0.5 billion. Its year-end net financial debt forecast improved to €28 billion–€29 billion.

Quarterly group revenue reached €10.053 billion, up 4.1% as reported, while adjusted EBITDA rose 6.9% to €1.615 billion. Pharmaceutical sales climbed to €4.68 billion, with Bayer identifying Nubeqa and Kerendia as important growth drivers. The drug division’s EBITDA before special items rose 23.6% to €1.292 billion, according to its quarterly statement.

Why the headline profit improvement needs context

Despite higher adjusted operating earnings, Bayer reported a third-quarter net loss of €672 million and free cash flow of minus €293 million. Impairment charges and litigation-related costs weighed on reported performance. Crop Science also faced weaker earnings in a seasonally smaller quarter. These distinctions matter: adjusted EBITDA excludes certain expenses, and does not directly measure cash available to reduce debt.

Bayer says net financial debt stood at €31.083 billion at September 30. Its revised year-end debt forecast signals progress, but still leaves substantial leverage. Legal uncertainty also remains: a proposed settlement relating to Roundup claims is subject to court review, not an already completed resolution.

What to watch next

Investors will need to see whether newer medicines continue offsetting patent-related declines, whether cash generation improves in the final quarter, and how legal proceedings affect liquidity. The raised forecast is evidence of better operating momentum, not proof that all financial and litigation challenges are behind the company.

Illustrative featured photograph: Trnava University / Unsplash. The photograph does not show Bayer facilities or the earnings announcement.