Fed’s Waller Weighs December Rate Hike—and a Bigger Move if Inflation Stays Hot

November 10, 2026. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller says he is leaning toward supporting a quarter-percentage-point interest-rate increase at the central bank’s December meeting—even if October inflation moderates as he expects. He also says a larger, half-point move should be considered if core consumer-price inflation remains around 0.3% or higher for the month.

Speaking at a conference in London, Waller described an economy still growing solidly and a labor market near its longer-run level, but argued that inflation remains too high. His assessment places unusual emphasis on the breadth of price increases, including possible knock-on effects from energy costs and demand associated with artificial-intelligence infrastructure.

What is decided—and what is not

Waller’s remarks express one policymaker’s conditional preference, not a Federal Open Market Committee decision. The next scheduled meeting is December 8–9. His 25-basis-point scenario assumes incoming data develop as he expects; the 50-basis-point scenario depends on a hotter inflation reading. Neither outcome is guaranteed.

Why the distinction matters

For borrowers, businesses and financial markets, a central banker openly contemplating a larger increase signals concern about inflation persistence. But the size of a future move depends on fresh data and the committee’s collective judgment. Treating Waller’s conditional remarks as an announced rate increase would misstate the news.

Primary source: Federal Reserve Board, Governor Waller’s November 10 speech. Independent reporting: Reuters, November 10.

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