# Apple’s First Earnings Call Under Ternus: Why the Holiday Forecast Matters More Than the Headline - Link: https://tectonicsmediapublications.com/apple-ternus-first-earnings-holiday-forecast-memory-costs-november-2-2026/ - Published: 2026-11-02T06:00:45+00:00 - Author: News Team **November 2, 2026 — Ahead of Apple’s quarterly results:** The most important number in Apple’s earnings release may not be the revenue it reports for the September quarter. It may be the guidance for the holiday quarter, when a new product lineup meets higher memory-chip costs and the company’s new chief executive faces his first earnings call. John Ternus, who succeeded Tim Cook in September, is expected to speak with investors on Monday. Analysts surveyed by LSEG forecast roughly **$113.39 billion in revenue** for Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter, nearly 11% above a year earlier, and **$29.04 billion in net profit**, about 6% higher, according to [Reuters reporting published November 2](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/apples-new-ceo-ternus-face-first-earnings-test-memory-costs-surge-2026-11-02/). Those figures are _estimates, not announced results_. ## Why the outlook could matter more than the headline The July–September reporting period includes only a limited portion of sales from the latest iPhone Pro models and none of the October 23 launch period for the new foldable iPhone Duo. That makes management’s guidance for the current holiday quarter a more immediate test of demand for the new devices than the backward-looking quarterly revenue total. A strong sales forecast would be less reassuring, however, if higher component costs consumed much of the additional revenue. Memory chips are a particular pressure point. The AI data-centre buildout has intensified competition for some types of memory, creating an uncomfortable overlap between Apple’s consumer-device supply chain and the infrastructure spending of AI companies. For investors, the question is not simply whether Apple can sell more phones, but whether it can preserve margins while doing so. ## Three questions for Ternus **First, demand and supply:** How much of the holiday outlook depends on the availability of the new devices? Delivery delays can signal strong orders, constrained production or both. They should not be treated as proof of sustained consumer demand on their own. **Second, artificial intelligence:** Apple is emphasizing privacy and practical assistance in its AI strategy. Investors will be listening for measurable progress on the redesigned Siri and for indications of how AI features might support device upgrades or services revenue. Neither user enthusiasm nor the ability to distribute third-party AI services automatically guarantees a new profit stream. **Third, services:** Reuters reports that analysts expect Apple’s services business to grow by almost 10% to about $31.56 billion. That would still represent growth, but at a slower pace than the division has delivered in recent years. The durability of that business matters because it can help cushion the volatility of hardware sales. ## What is confirmed — and what is still to come Apple’s [previous official quarterly release](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/07/apple-reports-third-quarter-results/) showed revenue of $109.4 billion for the June quarter, up 16% year on year. It is a historical comparison, not a preview of the results due later today. Apple’s [investor-relations site](https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx) is the primary place to check the actual fourth-quarter figures and management commentary when released. **The bottom line:** A strong September-quarter result could coexist with a cautious holiday forecast. The key editorial distinction is between reported performance, analysts’ expectations and management’s forward-looking statements. This article is a pre-earnings analysis and will require updating after Apple’s official announcement. _Sources: [Reuters, November 2, 2026](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/apples-new-ceo-ternus-face-first-earnings-test-memory-costs-surge-2026-11-02/); [Apple fiscal Q3 release, July 30, 2026](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/07/apple-reports-third-quarter-results/); [Apple Investor Relations](https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx); [AppleInsider analyst preview, November 1, 2026](https://appleinsider.com/articles/26/11/01/what-to-expect-from-apples-q4-2026-results-on-november-2)._ Featured photograph: [rupixen / Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/@rupixen), illustrative smartphone and laptop; not a photograph of the earnings event. 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